I'm sure some of you remember my other Theory/Prediction thread, which can be found here. Instead of continuing to post theories there, I've decided to create a new thread for A House Divided, by far my favorite episode.
William Carver: So we clearly know now why Carver is chasing the group, Rebecca's baby. Even though many suspected this, there was always a bit of skepticism as to under what circumstances Rebecca was involved with Carver. It's still not entirely cleared up, but I feel that we can make the mostly safe assumption that it was consensual.
So we know why he wants Rebecca, and maybe he wants Alvin just to kill him, but why the rest of the group, why did they leave with Rebecca and Alvin, and why does Carver want them back?
I'll get to the first thing later, but for now, let's talk about why(maybe) Carver wants them back...
Simply put, I think he's running some kind of prison camp. Enslaving people and forcing them to work for him. Farm, build defenses, gather supplies, whatever. This means he'd have to have enough soldiers to control all these people, so I assume his army is bigger than just Troy, Johnny, and Bonnie. Also, I think it's safe to say that maybe he has some sort of "hierarchy" within his group. how he talks about them earning their way back into the fold, Bonnie bossing around the others, etc.
In fact, from the previews, maybe Kenny and Clementine have a plan for Clem to get closer to him, and then... well, I'd rather not get into too specific theories, because then things get messy.
Another thing about Carver is that he does seem to care about his own people. Perhaps this means we'll be getting a fairly original villain rather than another version of the "evil despot" types we get from the comics(The Governor, Negan). Regardless, just form this episode alone, i'd say that Carver is one of my favorite Walking Dead antagonists in the franchise, Michael Madsen is doing a fantastic job, and I have high hopes for the character!
Luke: As many people have been saying, something isn't quite right with Luke. I didn't get this feeling immediately, or even earlier into episode two. In fact, it was more of an afterthought once I'd finished the episode.
There's a couple reasons for this. One is his mysterious disappearance. Some say that Kenny killed him. I haven't got much to say about that other than I full-heartedly disagree. He could have just run off as well, but Luke doesn't seem like a coward to me.
One theory is that Luke is secretly working for Carver. things to support this is that he left when Clem said she saw people with lights, and of course, the disappearance itself. however, Carver genuinely didn't seem to know where Luke was, though he could have easily been lying, and Nick and Luke are best friends. they seem to have known each other for a long time.
Even though Luke isn't a coward, maybe he did just "cut and run" like Carver said. There's a couple things to indicate this. There's the rest of what Carver said, "So Luke finally decided to cut and run? Why am I not surprised." And then there's what Nick said, "I wish I could be like him, always movin' on." That's not an exact quote, but it's close. Luke seems to have been at least a little reckless before the Turn, wasting all their money on bullshit schemes, etc. In this way, he reminds me of Jack from Fables/TWAU.
Third option, Luke was smart and stayed behind, deciding to track them down later. It's possible, nothing to support or deny it, but it's possible.
There's more to Luke than just that mystery though. Earlier, I'd mentioned why the rest would follow Rebecca and Alvin, I think the factor that united them all was Luke. Carver talks to Carlos as though he was following luke, so perhaps Luke clearly didn't like Carver, and no one in the group did either. After Rebecca got pregnant, they may have decided to leave as one group. I think there are many reasons why Carlos, Nick, Pete and the rest would dislike Carver and his group... But I get the feeling that with Luke, it's something more personal.
Kenny: Okay, first off
Right, now let's talk about Kenny. If you look at my other prediction thread(link above), then you can see that I predicted that Kenny would come back as a "broken" man, a much sadder and wearier character, but he's just the same old Kenny!... Isn't he?
Clearly something is off with Kenny, we get that right off the bat with his overly optimistic attitude and happy demeanor, but behind it is something darker. It seems as if Kenny never got over the events of Long Road Ahead, and has maybe even tried to "recreate" his family. Sarita taking the place of Katjaa, and now Clem taking the place of Duck.... Believe me, Kenny is just as broken as I predicted. Actually even more so, as I thought that he may have gotten over their deaths, at least a little bit, but it seems he's hardly moved on at all.
Even Wellington had taken the place of his obsession with the boat, though I can't really blame him there, it does sound like a great place.
Aside from Kenny's fragile mental health, there's a couple other things that have changed about him. He seems to have become a better survivor(a better shot, and stronger according to Sarita), which is different from the S1 Kenny who was basically a weakling. And also, he seems more reasonable and level headed. Of course, there are clear exceptions to this. when Luke and Nick question Wellington, Kenny freaks out, because to him, it's like they're trying to destroy his vision of the way things should be, and his recreation of how things were, but aside form this, Kenny does know when to back down with the incident with Carver near the end. Perhaps even though he's trying to recreate what things were like, he has changed for the better, at least a little.
Over the next few episodes, I think that Kenny will begin to unravel, and Clem will either be there for him... or perhaps not. I know my Clementine will be there to help him every step of the way at least. The progression of Kenny will probably be him finally moving on from what happened, and becoming a better man because of it. Or, maybe he'll fall apart. Either way.
Luke & Kenny: These two characters seem to have a kind of rivalry between them that people have been discussing, so let's talk about it. Clearly Clementine fits in with Kenny's little "pseudo family", but besides that, I think that Kenny genuinely cares about Clem and wants to protect her. The same can be said of Luke kind of as the "Big Brother" figure(or can it? For now, let's say yes).
We see this rivalry between the two of them when Clem has to choose where to sit in the Ski Lodge, with Kenny or with Luke. In a way, this rivalry is almost childish.
Luke has only known Clem for about a week, but still wants to protect her/earn her trust, Kenny has known Clementine for about half a year, and hasn't seen her for two years. Despite whatever relationship he had with Lee, I think that Kenny still does care about Clem. They're both trying to take the same place, though they don't necessarily need to fight over it.
I think that unless there is some dark secret with Luke, we'll continually be made to choose between the two of them, though I don't see them ever truly becoming enemies. In fact, they seem similar in a lot of ways, so at most they'll have this sort of rivalry between them.
Bonnie: I was immediately suspicious of Bonnie when she appeared because she was lying about her family. It was strange, but I didn't expect her to be working with Carver.
Now, there are two theories that I have about this. The one that I don't like as much(it's just as likely, I just don't like it), is that Tavia was actually working with Carver, rounding people up for his "prison camp". Everyone who went with Tavia ended up with Carver. This actually makes a little sense because it was Bonnie we saw, and she goes with Tavia no matter what. Even if this is the case, I don't think that Bonnie is a bad person, and she'll probably be Clem's friend in the group(as shown in the previews).
The other option is that Tavia's community is a different one and, maybe they're fighting with/are rivals with Carver's camp. If this is the case, then Bonnie may be working as a spy.
Either way, I don't see her as the villain in either scenario.
Lilly: I think that if we do see Lilly, we may see her as one of the "higher ups" in Carver's community. It makes sense, Carver hasn't proven himself to be fully "evi", simply brutal, cruel, smart, and pragmatic. Lilly, as a clear pragmatist, would fit right in. In fact, she may thrive in a community like that.
No that's not to say that she would be condemned to being the villain, perhaps as Clementine we could try to talk to her, and maybe she would be nicer to Clem. Also, it would be interesting to see if she would enact her revenge against Kenny if indeed she is in a position of power in Carver's community.
No, if she doesn't end up playing this role, then maybe she will be one of the people to try and help free Clementine and the others from Carver's community. Honestly, I think this role would be less interesting, but still possible. Lilly simply joining up with the group once more doesn't interest me greatly, but Lilly being torn between Carver and Clem, and also being in a position of power over Kenny, the man who "murdered" her father... Well, that would be interesting to see.
So, those are all the important things that I could think of to talk about for the moment, I'd really love to see what you think about my theories, and to see your own. This was my favorite episode of The Walking dead so far, and it shows that Season Two will blow the first one out of the water.